NBA playoff preview – 5-on-5 debate on biggest Round 1 question


Who would be the breakout participant of the playoffs and the MVP of Spherical 1? Which crew has the best path to Finals?

Our NBA Insiders give their daring predictions and what to look at in a supersized version of 5-on-5.

1. What Spherical 1 matchup are you most excited to look at?

Jackie MacMullan, Why do I discover myself drawn to Warriors-Spurs? It’s lopsided on paper, however Steve Kerr shaped a lot of his teaching philosophy on the knee of Gregg Popovich, and as Sting as soon as crooned, “Hypnotized by you if I should linger … staring at the ring around your finger …” Golden State is nicked up and out of sync and feels (gasp!) susceptible — but will advance anyway. Within the interim, perhaps the wily Manu Ginobili and his equally resourceful coach will make it fascinating.

Chiney Ogwumike, ESPN analyst & WNBA All-Star: Though Joel Embiid is unlikely to play at the beginning of the playoffs, the 76ers are nonetheless the NBA’s hottest crew. Everyone knows that the web is rooting for a Masked Embiid matchup in opposition to his Twitter foe Hassan Whiteside.

Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight: Thunder-Jazz presents a handful of star gamers, essentially the most evenly matched groups and will simply go seven video games. The groups have not performed since Dec. 23, nicely earlier than Rudy Gobert was again from damage, and previous to the Jazz swinging a midseason commerce that shipped Rodney Hood to Cleveland for Jae Crowder. In different phrases: We do not know how these groups matchup, as a result of these gamers have not actually squared off but.

Kevin Arnovitz, Sixers vs. Warmth. There’s one thing about watching an thrilling younger crew make its maiden voyage into the tumultuous waters of the postseason. Keep in mind the Thunder going punch for punch with the Lakers in 2010? The Sixers have been constructing for this second for years, and so they not solely have the power of youth, however the momentum of a 16-game successful streak propelling them into the collection.

Marc J. Spears, The Undefeated: Blazers versus Pelicans. The collection consists of two NBA MVP candidates who’re thirsty to take their careers to the following degree with a robust playoff efficiency in Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis. Nobody questions their star degree. However legends are made within the playoffs.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Oklahoma Metropolis vs. Utah. That is simply the closest collection on paper, with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index giving the Thunder a slim 53-47 benefit in projected probabilities to win by advantage of house courtroom. It is also in all probability one of the best two mixed groups; the Jazz completed fifth in level differential and Oklahoma Metropolis seventh, that means whoever wins this collection might give the Houston Rockets a scare in Spherical 2.

2. Who has the best path to the Finals?

Herring: The Sixers have it very nice. Sure, they’ve a treacherous first spherical in opposition to Erik Spoelstra and the Warmth, who could prepare dinner up one thing to problem Ben Simmons‘s unwillingness to shoot from exterior the paint. That and Joel Embiid’s potential absence for the primary few video games are regarding given Miami’s stout protection. But when Philly advances to Spherical 2, the younger crew would virtually definitely be favored there, too – particularly in the event that they draw the Celtics with out Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Both LeBron or Toronto would determine to be ready within the convention finals, however the highway to that time is about all a crew might ask for.

Spears: No NBA crew could have it straightforward within the convention finals. So, the higher query is which crew has the best highway there. The 76ers should not have to face the Toronto Raptors or Cleveland Cavaliers en path to the East finals, however that is new strain for the younger Sixers.

Pelton: Philadelphia 76ers. With Kyrie Irving injured and the Boston Celtics now not so formidable as a second-round matchup, the Sixers clearly have the best path to the convention finals. And since virtually any opponent there may be going to be troublesome, I suppose I might say that additionally means Philadelphia has the best path to the NBA Finals.

Ogwumike: The Cavs have had 9 lives thus far this season. Add the playoff bracket to the rely. Not as blatantly apparent as final 12 months, Cleveland’s late losses this season have positioned the Cavaliers greatest for postseason success.

Arnovitz: Foolish 5-on-5 Grasp! This ain’t an NCAA regional bracket, it is the N-freaking-B-A playoffs — there are not any straightforward paths! By design, it is sometimes the No. 1 seed that faces the much less stalwart competitors, however you assume the Raptors are desirous to see the Cavs as their potential second-round matchup? You might argue the Rockets will not sweat the Timberwolves — and might shoot their well past the Thunder or Jazz, however the Warriors — accidents and all — determine to be a far totally different crew in a month. The best path to the Finals belongs to Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy and Doris Burke. They get to fly top quality.

MacMullan: The reply needs to be a crew within the East, because the two greatest squads reside within the West, however which one? Are we audacious sufficient to recommend the Sixers, these 28-wins-of-a-year-ago Sixers, can pull this off? Any second Joel Embiid, the self-proclaimed Phantom of the Course of, will begin trolling Hassan Whiteside and we’ll have a front-row seat to the unraveling. Philly’s path to the convention finals would not embody LeBron or the Raptors, in order that alone qualifies the Sixers as a authentic reply to this query. Everybody retains chiding me that Ben Simmons is not actually a rookie. He is definitely not taking part in like one … so … might it occur? Too scrumptious to contemplate.

Three. Who would be the Spherical 1 MVP?

Pelton: LeBron James. A collection of shut video games in opposition to the Indiana Pacers might give James an opportunity to proceed his clutch heroics from the common season, and with a lot time between video games there is no cause to count on Tyronn Lue to chop James’ minutes now. So I feel the doubtless second-place finisher in regular-season MVP voting would be the most precious participant within the first spherical of the playoffs.

Arnovitz: The Houston Rockets might doubtlessly common a million factors per recreation in opposition to the Timberwolves, which implies James Harden will submit some gaudy numbers as he steps again, modifications speeds and customarily decimates the Wolves’ fragile protection.

Herring: I’ve a sense Anthony Davis will go off on this collection in opposition to the Blazers, no matter whether or not the Pelicans discover a solution to pull off the upset in Spherical 1. His versatility will current monumental challenges for Jusuf Nurkic, who prefers to drop into the paint however will not at all times have the ability to do this due to Davis’s taking pictures potential. AD averaged 31.5 factors, 11 boards and three blocks per recreation in his first playoff exhibiting in opposition to the Warriors three years in the past, and it isn’t inconceivable that he might just do as a lot harm right here.

Spears: Russell Westbrook will likely be making an attempt to embarrass the Utah Jazz your entire collection. The Thunder have had their struggles all season, and so they’ve been disrespected with the ups and downs of their large three. Westbrook will attempt to impose his will on the up-and-coming Jazz and take the highlight from heralded Donovan Mitchell.

MacMullan: I am placing all my chips on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Listed below are his numbers in 4 video games in opposition to first-round opponent Boston this season: 33.5 factors, 10.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists a recreation, with a .53.9 % taking pictures share and a median of 10.5 free throws a recreation. With underrated Boston large man Daniel Theis shelved for the postseason, these numbers might really improve. (And but, invoking the immortal Jerry West, this doesn’t essentially imply the Greek Freak’s crew will win.)

Ogwumike: Damian Lillard is primed to make some noise this postseason, however I’m anticipating James Harden to formally declare his throne as the true MVP. Whereas folks should still say James cannot be trusted after the best way the Rockets exited final 12 months’s playoffs, please keep in mind that the league’s main scorer taking part in on one of the best crew in one of the best convention now additionally has Chris Paul in his ear to maintain him targeted.

four. Who would be the breakout participant of the postseason?

Arnovitz: The Sixers have been listening to the murmurs — the playoffs are totally different and groups will lay off Ben Simmons, give him the Rajon Rondo remedy and pressure him to shoot. However you’ll be able to’t sag on pace, and when Simmons will get rumbling within the open courtroom, a protection has way more to fret about than a pull-up jumper from the Sixers’ level guard. Sure, Simmons could have some problem-solving puzzles to work in opposition to extra ready defenses, however he’ll discover methods to harm opponents, perimeter photographs be damned.

MacMullan: We have been reciting the gaudy statistics all season of a Houston lineup that features (doubtless) MVP James Harden, resident Yoda Chris Paul and heart Clint Capela. The arrival of Paul created much more straightforward buckets (learn: dunks) for the quickly bettering Capela, however except for his league-leading area aim share (65.2), Capela has emerged as a type of agile, rangy large males who observe down opponents and easily abuse them by swatting their choices into the seats. His two-way play has been a tad missed amid the plaudits for his high-octane backcourt. As Houston continues to advance, so will Capela’s case for a max deal when the season ends.

Ogwumike: The true Rookie of the 12 months, who will not win the award due to the precise Rookie of the 12 months.

Pelton: Fred VanVleet. Maybe VanVleet has already damaged out; he is gotten loads of love from the nationwide media for his lead function in a Toronto bench that has been key to the Raptors’ success. Nonetheless, I feel VanVleet has the chance to show within the postseason that he is greater than only a sparkplug off the bench by being one among Dwane Casey’s most trusted choices to complete video games with a lot on the road.

Spears: Ben Simmons will turn out to be one of many elite stars this postseason. He ought to have been an NBA All-Star. Together with Joel Embiid, Simmons will lead the Sixers to the East finals. Say hi there to the reincarnation of Magic Johnson on a way more athletic degree within the fun-to-watch Simmons.

Herring: Just like final 12 months, when the Bucks drew the Raptors in a first-round collection, Giannis would be the greatest participant by far in his matchup. The hole will likely be even bigger this time round, in opposition to the Al Horford-led Celtics. Boston had no actual reply for him defensively, as Antetokounmpo posted 33.5 factors per recreation in opposition to the C’s in the course of the common season, his second-highest mark of any opponent.

5. What’s your daring Spherical 1 prediction?

Ogwumike: No groups will sweep their opponents within the first spherical.

Spears: Giannis Antetokounmpo and the No. 7 seed Milwaukee Bucks will knock out the injury-plagued Boston Celtics. Dropping Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward will likely be an excessive amount of for Boston to beat. All-Star balloting confirmed followers are excessive on Giannis. CBS’ “60 Minutes” has featured the Bucks’ star. It is time for The Greek Freak to make some playoff noise.

Herring: Unsure if I might fairly go so far as to foretell it — I suppose I do not see a real upset on this spherical, as lame as that sounds — however I might completely see the Pelicans beating the Blazers. Portland’s guard play is healthier, however Jrue Vacation is essentially the most well-rounded participant within the backcourt on both crew, and he is able to serving to New Orleans steal a recreation. It could require a Herculean effort from Davis, and certain sizzling taking pictures from E’Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic. However there’s sufficient expertise to get it accomplished if Alvin Gentry can design a stable recreation plan.

Arnovitz: The Utah Jazz will advance after which take the Rockets to seven video games within the convention semifinals.

MacMullan: DeMar DeRozan will likely be an absolute stud. Having hung out in Toronto final weekend, the unease surrounding the Raptors’ fan base is palpable. They’re anxious about shedding Recreation 1 (once more). They’re anxious Kyle Lowry and DeRozan will shrink within the second. The matchups weren’t set once I was there, giving them ample time to worry about each attainable doomsday state of affairs. Sufficient already. DeRozan has submitted an All-NBA season, changing into a extra environment friendly participant, increasing his vary to the Three-point line, and at last — lastly! — tuning out the naysayers. He is additionally assumed the mantle because the NBA’s unofficial spokesperson for confronting psychological well being points, but one more reason to root for Inheritor Canada.

Pelton: Three gamers (LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Russell Westbrook) common triple-doubles.

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