Week 7 NFL DFS Sleepers

In case you’re new to this/me, this sleeper piece aims for contrarian/GPP players, but more importantly, it focuses on matchups to exploit using APA (Adjusted Points Allowed). APA is a metric that I created years ago, adjusting for the strength of opponent, etc. Obviously, facing Patrick Mahomes every game would inflate the points allowed versus seeing Sam Darnold under center. APA does a quality job at evening out the strength of opponents to give you a true Fantasy points allowed average (+/- compared to positional league average).

As always, catch me @allinkid and keep reading to see my FanDuel DFS sleepers for Week 7.

Quarterback APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 DET ATL 34.1 +14.6 15 TB LV 18.9 -0.6
2 ARI SEA 28.0 +8.4 16 CLE CIN 18.5 -1.1
3 JAX LAC 26.5 +7.0 17 BUF NYJ 18.3 -1.2
4 CAR NO 26.0 +6.4 18 ATL DET 18.2 -1.3
5 NYJ BUF 24.7 +5.1 19 HOU GB 17.5 -2.1
6 PIT TEN 23.9 +4.3 20 SEA ARI 17.4 -2.2
7 WSH DAL 23.1 +3.5 21 CHI LAR 17.2 -2.3
8 NYG PHI 22.9 +3.4 22 TEN PIT 16.0 -3.6
9 KC DEN 21.9 +2.3 23 PHI NYG 15.0 -4.6
10 LAC JAX 21.6 +2.0 24 DEN KC 13.5 -6.1
11 DAL WSH 21.4 +1.8 25 SAF NE 12.5 -7.1
12 CIN CLE 19.8 +0.3 26 NO CAR 10.9 -8.6
13 GB HOU 19.4 -0.2 27 LAR CHI 10.8 -8.8
14 NE SAF 19.0 -0.6 28 LV TB 10.6 -9.0
LEAGUE AVERAGE 19.6

Running Back APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 GB HOU 38.7 +15.2 15 CHI LAR 21.9 -1.6
2 TB LV 35.4 +11.9 16 SEA ARI 21.0 -2.5
3 HOU GB 35.2 +11.7 17 DET ATL 20.9 -2.6
4 NO CAR 34.2 +10.7 18 DAL WSH 20.3 -3.2
5 LAC JAX 32.9 +9.4 19 NYG PHI 17.9 -5.6
6 ATL DET 31.3 +7.8 20 ARI SEA 17.8 -5.7
7 BUF NYJ 31.1 +7.6 21 LAR CHI 17.7 -5.8
8 PIT TEN 27.2 +3.7 22 CAR NO 16.9 -6.6
9 WSH DAL 26.5 +3.0 23 JAX LAC 16.2 -7.2
10 PHI NYG 25.4 +2.0 24 TEN PIT 15.7 -7.8
11 DEN KC 24.5 +1.0 25 SAF NE 15.6 -7.9
12 CLE CIN 24.1 +0.6 26 LV TB 15.4 -8.1
13 NYJ BUF 24.0 +0.5 27 NE SAF 15.3 -8.2
14 CIN CLE 22.1 -1.4 28 KC DEN 12.4 -11.1
LEAGUE AVERAGE 23.5

Wide Receiver APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 ARI SEA 61.7 +28.6 15 SAF NE 32.5 -0.6
2 CIN CLE 45.5 +12.4 16 JAX LAC 32.3 -0.9
3 WSH DAL 44.4 +11.2 17 TB LV 31.3 -1.8
4 PIT TEN 41.8 +8.6 18 NYJ BUF 31.2 -1.9
5 NYG PHI 40.4 +7.3 19 CAR NO 29.5 -3.6
6 DET ATL 40.4 +7.2 20 NE SAF 28.7 -4.4
7 TEN PIT 39.7 +6.5 21 SEA ARI 27.2 -6.0
8 ATL DET 37.1 +4.0 22 LV TB 26.6 -6.6
9 GB HOU 35.7 +2.5 23 HOU GB 26.0 -7.2
10 LAC JAX 35.2 +2.1 24 DEN KC 23.3 -9.8
11 CLE CIN 34.0 +0.8 25 DAL WSH 22.8 -10.4
12 KC DEN 33.5 +0.3 26 LAR CHI 21.8 -11.4
13 PHI NYG 33.2 +0.0 27 NO CAR 20.4 -12.8
14 BUF NYJ 32.6 -0.6 28 CHI LAR 19.9 -13.3
LEAGUE AVERAGE 33.2

Tight End APA

RANK TEAM OPP APA +/- RANK TEAM OPP APA +/-
1 DET ATL 25.4 +13.1 15 TB LV 11.8 -0.4
2 CAR NO 21.8 +9.5 16 LAR CHI 10.9 -1.4
3 NYJ BUF 20.3 +8.0 17 SEA ARI 10.1 -2.2
4 NYG PHI 19.3 +7.0 18 KC DEN 9.9 -2.4
5 PIT TEN 16.7 +4.5 19 HOU GB 9.6 -2.7
6 JAX LAC 15.8 +3.5 20 NE SAF 8.9 -3.4
7 DAL WSH 15.2 +2.9 21 DEN KC 8.2 -4.0
8 CLE CIN 14.9 +2.6 22 LV TB 7.7 -4.5
9 WSH DAL 14.7 +2.4 23 ARI SEA 7.4 -4.9
10 CIN CLE 14.4 +2.1 24 NO CAR 7.4 -4.9
11 LAC JAX 13.2 +0.9 25 TEN PIT 6.6 -5.7
12 CHI LAR 13.2 +0.9 26 PHI NYG 6.4 -5.9
13 BUF NYJ 12.9 +0.7 27 ATL DET 4.9 -7.4
14 GB HOU 12.6 +0.3 28 SAF NE 3.7 -8.6
LEAGUE AVERAGE 12.3

FanDuel Week 7 Sleepers

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson $8000 – It’s not just that Watson has been on a roll since Bill O’Brien got the boot or that 26.86 and 32.0 are terrific scores the past two games, the Texans are also in a great spot for a potential shootout. People will worry about Jaire Alexander, and while he is a shutdown talent, he might not spend the entire game on Will Fuller given the matchup. Even then, with Fuller and Brandin Cooks, plus David Johnson out the backfield, Darren Fells at tight and the occasional Randall Cobb assistance, there is enough here for Watson, especially with his added rushing. After all, the Packers have faced statues so far, Kirk Cousins managed to run for a bit in Week 1, and every quarterback but Matt Ryan threw two touchdowns against the Pack.

OTHER APA BOOSTED QBs

Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Ben Roethlisberger

RUNNING BACK

David Johnson $6300 – Sticking with the Texans, it’s even better for David Johnson. While he hasn’t been a tournament winner, Johnson has double-digits in all but one game (Ravens). Johnson has three touchdowns on the year and hasn’t reached 100 rushing yards yet, but Ronald Jones just went for 113 and two scores against them. Don’t forget that Alvin Kamara obliterated them in the passing game (13/139/2) and even D’Andre Swift had 5-for-60 in Week 2.

Justin Jackson $6100 – It’s just one game, but Jackson looks to be stepping into the Austin Ekeler role with the offense holding steady. Joshua Kelley started in a near-even split before the bye, but by the fourth quarter, it was all Jackson, and he clearly outplayed Kelley. Jackson finished with 94 yards but is cheaper than Kelley, and the Jaguars have been destroyed by running backs since Week 3. Swift put up 24.3 last week and had a big game even without the second touchdown run.

OTHER APA BOOSTED RBs

Aaron Jones, Ronald Jones, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley

WIDE RECEIVER

Odell Beckham $6700 – Beckham was ticked and Baker Mayfield was playing terribly. Mayfield might not be better this week, but Beckham will do everything he can in this great matchup. OBJ had 4/74/1 in the first matchup, and Marcus Johnson had 5/108 last week with Zach Pascal chipping in 4/54/1. Oh, they also made Philip Rivers look like an elite quarterback despite his awful play this year.

Jamison Crowder $6300 – For whatever reason, people still don’t want to use Crowder. The 7-for-48 last week was actually his worst game, and he still had 13 targets. The previous three games, Crowder had at least 10 targets, 7 receptions, and 104 yards with touchdowns in two of them. The Bills defense has been very poor this year, and they continue to struggle against elusive running backs and middle of the field/slot receivers. Crowder can bounce back in a big way.

Tee Higgins $5700 – Higgins has quickly turned into the Bengals No. 1 receiver and Joe Burrow‘s main option in the red zone. You can bring back the OBJ play with Higgins (or vice versa), as Mike Thomas and Tyler Boyd both scored the first time around… before Higgins took over. The Browns have already given up 10 double-digit scores and two of 22-plus (both in Week 4 to the Cowboys).

OTHER APA BOOSTED WRs

DeAndre Hopkins, other Bengals, Terry McLaurin, Steelers, Lions

TIGHT END

Austin Hooper $5400 – There is a lot to like in the Browns-Bengals game for value. Hockenson is the obvious play, but Hooper is back to relevancy since Nick Chubb got hurt with lines of 7/5/34/1, 10/5/57/0, and 6/5/52/0 the past three games. That’s 11.9, 8.2, and 7.7 points, and while Hooper’s value came with a touchdown in that first one, the Bengals have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in the past two games (Mark Andrews, Trey Burton, Jack Doyle). Maybe Mayfield is a hail mary tournament play? Nah… well…

OTHER APA BOOSTED TEs

T.J. Hockenson, Eric Ebron, Logan Thomas, Hunter Henry

APA Concerning Matchups

QBs: Jared Goff, Drew Bress, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill

RBs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patriots, Josh Jacobs, James Robinson

WRs: Allen Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Cowboys, Broncos

TEs: Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Jared Cook, Darren Waller

If you want more of Jake Ciely, and as a special gift to The Footclan, use this link to get The Athletic for just $1 a month!

The post DFS Sleepers & Blind Spots for Week 7 appeared first on Fantasy Footballers Podcast.


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