Welcome to the weekly Dynasty Report, Footclan!
We did it! After months of uncertainty, we are through the first week of the 2020 NFL season.
I am excited to provide you with a weekly snapshot of some of the risers and fallers in the dynasty football landscape. Keep in mind, balancing the current and future outlook of your team is one of the toughest aspects of dynasty football. It requires year-long engagement and commitment, and the Fantasy Footballers team is here to guide you through that process!
In this weekly article, I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment – which will vary week to week! This can be a dynasty deep stash, an incoming prospect to keep an eye on, or an intriguing statistic!
And without further ado, let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Be Patient With Your Rookies
One of the most exciting events of the year for Fantasy Football managers is the NFL Draft. With an influx of talent coming in, we always look forward to drafting the next Julio Jones or LaDanian Tomlinson.
And once rookie drafts have concluded, we are eager to insert the CeeDee Lambs and Jonathan Taylors of the world into our lineups and see them succeed. However, we need to remember that rookies do not always begin their careers as fantasy studs. For some, it may happen immediately (oh hey, CEH). But for others, specifically for WRs, we may have to wait up to a year to rely on them as consistent fantasy starters.
Over the last 10 years, a top-24 RB has averaged at least 12.2 PPR points per game. A top-24 WR has averaged at least 13.8 PPR points per game. In that same timespan, we have seen only 25 rookie RBs and 11 rookie WRs meet those benchmarks (minimum 8 games played).
In short, stay patient with your rookie WRs and RBs. They will likely produce for you down the line, but temper your expectations for their rookie year.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up: James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, RB
After Leonard Fournette was unexpectedly released by Jacksonville, the Jaguars backfield was wide open for the taking. Who would emerge as the lead RB on this team? Will it be a running back by committee? After week 1, it seems as if most of these questions have been answered. By the end of the game, it was very evident that James Robinson, UDFA out of Illinois State, is the lead RB for Jacksonville.
Highest share of team RB rushing attempts in Week 1:
James Robinson – 100%
Joe Mixon – 95%
Christian McCaffrey – 92%
Ezekiel Elliott – 92%
Josh Jacobs – 86% pic.twitter.com/y03qCi06mw
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 14, 2020
In fact, Robinson led all Jacksonville RBs in carries (16) and snaps (34), while finishing only 1 target behind Chris Thompson. He also impressively accounted for 100% of his team’s RB rushing attempts, which is a feat that even Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott did not accomplish this week. Check your dynasty league waiver wires, as Robinson is possibly still available. You rarely find RBs with workhorse potential in deeper leagues, making Robinson a must-add for all dynasty teams.
Stock Down: Mecole Hardman – Kansas City Chiefs, WR
Mecole Hardman was projected by many to become the WR2 opposite Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. However, if week 1 was any indication, Hardman will be the 5th or 6th receiving option in this explosive offense. He finished with one target, one reception, and 6 receiving yards while being out-targeted by Demarcus Robinson (6) and Darrel Williams (2).
If we take a look at Hardman’s snap count, the story becomes even grimmer. He only played on 29% of the snaps. Robinson, on the other hand, was on the field for 48% of the snaps, clearly operating as the WR3 ahead of Hardman. While this is extremely disappointing, keep in mind that Hardman is still only 22 years old and recorded one of the most efficient rookie seasons on a per touch basis. He clearly has the talent and draft capital to emerge in the coming seasons. For now, his dynasty stock is unfortunately on the decline.
Stock Up: Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins, RB
A 7th round pick out of the University of Washington, Myles Gaskin was flying under the radar all off-season. And while many assumed that Jordan Howard and Matt Breida would dominate the backfield touches, it was Gaskin who carved out a significant role in Sunday’s game against the Patriots. If we take a look at Brian Flores’ comments from last month, it was evident that Gaskin improved every facet of his game over the off-season. He earned a role on this offense, so it should not be surprising to see him remain involved.
Miami RB ~ Myles Gaskin
He could still be available in deeper dynasty leagues, and finished with:
9 RuAtt – 40 RuYds
4 Targets – 4 Rec – 26 RecYds
40.9% of RB carries
66.6% of RB targets
Led all Miami RBs with 39 snaps pic.twitter.com/GQyU74uiU4
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) September 13, 2020
I would highly recommend taking a look at the last few plays right before half time. Gaskin was the RB in the hurry-up offense, excelling as a rusher, receiver, and blocker. One of my absolute favorite plays came at the 2:13 mark in the 2nd quarter. Behind the line of scrimmage, he avoided two defenders and broke a tackle, gaining 9 yards on a run that could have netted negative yards. You rarely find RBs that account for 63% of the snaps sitting on your waiver wire. Make sure to add him to your dynasty rosters if he is still available!
Stock Down: Dede Westbrook – Jacksonville Jaguars, WR
We have a second Jacksonville Jaguar on the stock report! Unfortunately, this player is trending downward. It was expected that Dede Westbrook would operate as the slot WR for Gardner Minshew. However, that was not the case this past week. Westbrook would be inactive due to the coach’s decision.
On Monday, Doug Marrone mentioned that Westbrook is still working his way back from a shoulder injury and was not quite up to speed with the new playbook. We know that Westbrook has WR3/flex potential with Minshew, so make sure to hold onto him for now. But until then, he will give way to Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault Jr, who played the 2nd and 3rd most snaps behind D.J. Chark.
Stock Up: Allen Lazard – Green Bay Packers, WR
There were several question marks heading into the season for the Green Bay Packers. After neglecting to upgrade the WR position, we knew that one of their younger WRs would have to step up for this offense to produce.
Enter Allen Lazard.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 13, 2020
He was the clear-cut WR2 vs the Vikings, accounting for 87% of the snaps. He would accumulate 5 touches, 82 total yards, and 1 touchdown. In addition, he was one of Rodgers’ favorite targets on 3rd down. Lazard accounted for 33% (2) of Rodgers’ 6 third-down passing conversations, which resulted in 50 total yards. And when targeting Lazard, Rodgers had a perfect QB rating of 158.3.
We should still temper our expectations as this performance was against a young Vikings secondary. However, it is encouraging to see that Lazard has earned the trust of both his QB and the coaching staff. And if Rodgers keeps up this level of play all season long, we could be looking at a flex WR with WR2 upside in Lazard.
Stock Down: Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams, RB
We knew that Cam Akers would likely steal a significant amount of Darrell Henderson’s touches, so the decline in dynasty value over the off-season was expected. However, his dynasty stock is about to take another hit as he only accounted for 7% of the snaps and 8.5% of the RB carries in Sunday’s win over the Cowboys.
It looks like Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers are set to lead this backfield – accounting for 93% of the snaps, 91.4% of the RB carries, and 100% of the RB targets this past week. Hold onto Henderson as his value will likely be at its lowest right now, making him untradeable. But unfortunately, unless an injury occurs, he will likely continue to see minimal touches in this offense.
Bonus: Dynasty Stash of the Week
J.J. Taylor – New England Patriots, RB
I know, I know. Why would you stash a New England Patriots RB that is buried in the depth chart? Well, for one, he was surprisingly involved in their win vs the Dolphins. He received 5 touches and accumulated 32 yards on only 9 snaps. When he was on the field, he was utilized in this offense.
And yes, his usage was likely due to Damien Harris’ injury. But if we look ahead to next season, both James White and Rex Burkhead will be unrestricted free agents. If both players sign elsewhere, J.J. Taylor could benefit greatly. Especially in PPR leagues, he is worth a stash on your taxi squad, with the potential of carving out a role as a receiving or change-of-pace RB in this offense.
If you are clicking to make last minute lineup decisions and are looking for a start from …